Back in 2018, it took just eight words to electrify the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.
In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Evolution of Stance & Settled Issues
Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence suggests many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains measured in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.
Although the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism
However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.
It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Document & Strategic Considerations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from deciding that this renders the US an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past
This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Danger and A Prudent Memory
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the impact just a few words had for him seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
