A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
